Trading the Randomness: Do You Know The Outcome of Your Trade is Random? Video
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Do You Know The Outcome of Your Trade is Random? http://www.financial-spread-betting.com/strategies/strategies-tips.html PLEASE LIKE AND SHARE THIS VIDEO SO WE CAN DO MORE! You can never be certain about the outcome of yoru trades - you don't know for sure whether any trade will turn out to be a winner or loser. You may know that any trade has a better likelihood of working but you don't know for sure.
Coping with Trading Psychology – Randomness. The next problem with coping with psychology is that each trade will have a random outcome. It certainly doesn’t appear to be this way, if you believe the trading experts and people who try to sell you their strategies. It seems that if you get everything right, put all the ducks in a line, then the outcome is inevitable, and you will win money.
In the real world, this is untrue. You will virtually never know which way a trade will go when you place it. You obviously don’t place random trades, that would be absurd; but you cannot guarantee if the trade you make is going to win or not. All you can do is go with the odds and place your trade in the likely direction.
This is one of the ideas that goes very much against your own instincts, and one of the reasons that trading psychology is so difficult. Surely, your brain says, if I get everything right then the trade will go in the direction I intend. That’s not the way it works, as you find out if you’ve done much trading.
In fact this very instinct can lead you to bad habits. It’s because of this that people are so loathe to give up a trade that goes against them, even if it goes to the stop loss level. It’s very difficult to just release your emotional attachment to a trade that you have worked on and watched, and that was supposed to make you money. Your brain tells you that you have done everything correctly and it simply should go in the other direction. The market may prove otherwise.
One of the important lessons in trading psychology is to learn to accept the outcome whatever it is. The market is bigger than any individual trader, and the market will always do what it does with no regard to which way you think it should go.
This is what we mean by saying that trades have a random outcome. It doesn’t mean that they are selected randomly or can equally well go up or down, simply that there is no one time when you take a trade that you can guarantee it will go in the direction you want. Your trading strategy may tell you that your trade succeeds 90% of the time, but when you take the trade you don’t know whether it will be in the 10% of losing trades or in the 90% of winners.
This is also one of the reasons why you should be careful in sizing every trade you make. Because you will have a percentage of losers, you are bound to statistically have a string of losers from time to time. If you don’t take care to preserve your capital by carefully sizing your stake, sooner or later you may be caught out and find that you are running out of funds to continue your trading.
Although it is a difficult concept, once you understand and feel that randomness will affect every trade you make, you will become a better trader.
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