Is Backtesting a Waste of Time? 🤨 Video
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6 Reasons Why Backtesting is a Waste of Time. http://www.financial-spread-betting.com/course/technical-analysis.html PLEASE LIKE AND SHARE THIS VIDEO SO WE CAN DO MORE! I'm playing devil's advocate here; I'm not a big advocate of backtesting myself - I prefer forward-testing and test my ideas and hypothesis going forward but that's myself. I know a number of traders use backtesting and I'm never going to go against someone's else strategy if it works for them.
Why Backtesting does not work;
1) Not many pros do it. If you look at most traditional hedge funds, they aren't backtesting in the way that retail traders do it.
2) Market conditions constantly change. The reason why the market goes up today could be the reason why it went down 5 years ago. People's perceptions and market conditions change. So much stuff is changing - people's needs or wants, technology..etc
3) Data is only part of the battle to success. Some of the other parts include discipline and executing the strategy. Even if you use a trading robot you still have to decide when you will utilise a particular trading strategy or when its time to add more funds or to stop using it.
4) It is very time consuming.
5) Results can be interpreted differently depending on what you're trying to find. There is actually an argument that the far back you go, the more useless it is.
6) You get a false sense of security. You go in there believing you have a winning strategy. But the system could drawdown for a long period of time - are you prepared to keep sticking to it relentlessly?
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